“Swagger” vs. Reality — Why the Kremlin’s Space Propaganda Still Works?
Why Russia’s “Big Lie” strategy keeps working, even though its “space EW” and grand space projects almost always remain fiction?
A recent wave of headlines about “a Starlink alternative, better than Elon Musk’s” is everywhere. Even reputable outlets, instead of full analysis, simply reprint loud and ambitious claims. For those who closely track Russia’s space realities, this is puzzling… because the facts diverge sharply from the rhetoric.
“Swagger” — Russia’s main export
Over the past decades, the Russian Federation built the image of a powerful superpower by leaning on the Soviet legacy. Many of today’s professionals, politicians, civil servants, and business leaders are old enough to be influenced by that narrative. But if you look at the facts, a pattern emerges: Russia’s main export is… falsehood. An enormous stream of lies at every level — or, as Russians themselves call it, “ponty” (swagger).
Yes, Russia still has experts, technologies, and scale. But in high tech and space, the trend in efficiency and development has long been negative. The country effectively lacks modern, efficient foundational manufacturing. As a result, almost all “contemporary” tech products depend on imported components — including in defense and space, and especially in communications and computing.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed the scale of official deception and laid bare reality. It keeps getting easier to see what’s actually going on. Here we’ll focus on space and two related topics: the fairy tales about Russia’s space EW and the Kremlin’s ambitions in satellite communications.
Space EW — to make everyone afraid
Start with anti-satellite EW. If you read some “known analytical reports” like the “2025 Global Counterspace Capabilities Report,” you’ll find many references to allegedly powerful Russian systems. But if you analyze the sources, most of it reprints loud claims from Russian state media. What’s the reality?
When it comes to GNSS jamming and spoofing, Russia’s systems are widespread and effective — the country has earned a reputation as the leading GNSS disruptor. Still, the fundamental vulnerabilities of GNSS have been well known for well over 20 years — hardly “space EW.”
As for blocking modern satellite communications, Russia has shown no decisive battlefield success. Yes, there have been attempts to disrupt Starlink, but the best results have been very local and limited — partial interference in small areas. And the average lifespan of such EW assets on the battlefield keeps shrinking thanks to Ukraine’s Defense Forces.
Russia also failed to suppress other modern satcom systems. The mismatch between propaganda and outcomes in the field is stark — though such details rarely make it into public reports.
One more key point: almost all modern Russian EW systems rely on imported components — increasingly from China, though not only. This underlines Russia’s dependence on foreign technology.
Satellite communications — swagger on a cosmic scale
GEO swagger
Russia indeed has a sizeable GEO satcom fleet. Of roughly 24 operational satellites, at least one (Yamal-202) is beyond its nominal design life, and a large share of 2010–2014 launches will reach EOL in 2025–2029. Over the last five years, Russia orbited 4 civil GEO comsats (Express-80, Express-103, Express-AMU3, Express-AMU7). If you include the military Olymp-K-2 (Luch/Olymp-K-2, 2023), the count is 5. Even if this pace holds, Russia’s GEO satcom capacity will decline materially over the next decade as aging spacecraft retire faster than replacements arrive.
In short, Russia can no longer quickly restore its GEO capacity with internal resources alone. As existing satellites age out, irreversible regression may follow. Whether it becomes fatal depends on Russia’s economy — but among “spacefaring nations,” Russia is sliding down the league table.
LEO swagger
On LEO, of all the loudly announced projects, only three have something operational in orbit today: ~15 Gonets-M, 1 Skif-D, and 6 Rassvet plus ~6 Rodnik/Strela-3M. In recent years, most such initiatives were folded into the “Sfera” umbrella (not only civil — “dual-use” dominates). Some military-space programs (e.g., GLONASS) sit under other umbrellas.
Rassvet (formerly “MegaFon 1440”) is a commercial project by Bureau 1440 (IXC Holding). Media reports oscillate between multibillion state funding and banking/payment troubles at the company.
Technically, Rassvet has real progress: pre-series satellites and user terminals; 6 spacecraft are in orbit; laser inter-satellite link tests have been publicly reported; and satcom service demos have been shown. Use for remote UAV control has been touted. Public plans spoke of scaling up from late-2025 onward, but meeting such timelines is non-trivial.
Experience with Starlink, OneWeb, Kuiper and others shows that the road from plan to reality is long and expensive. So far, Bureau 1440 has struggled to hit public milestones on time — delays of a year or two have been common. That doesn’t mean success is impossible — but the odds of on-time, full-scope execution amid economic headwinds are not great. Given declared militarized use-cases, Rassvet is likely to draw sanctions pressure — which Ukraine should actively pursue.
A deeper dossier on Rassvet/Bureau 1440 is coming soon on SkyLinker.io. What is already clear from open sources: the project relies heavily on imported components, largely Chinese. That means costs, schedules, and overall success remain tightly coupled to import feasibility — and Russia’s budget realities rarely help.
Bottom line
Russia’s “Big Lie” strategy, inherited from the USSR and refined since, still works — too many audiences keep believing Moscow’s loud claims. Tiny grains of truth make the whole narrative seem plausible. That doesn’t help Ukrainians defend themselves.
Right now, mainstream outlets reprint “sensational” announcements about Russia’s space plans. Those same narratives seep into “analytical reports,” shaping inflated assessments built on PR rather than data. It still works — and Russian propagandists exploit it, building massive information bubbles.
But the world is changing. Publicly available details will attract growing scrutiny. Decision-makers will develop immunity to lies. And there’s another flaw in the “Big Lie”: eventually, its authors start believing it. The collision with reality breaks everything built on deception.
We shouldn’t underestimate these programs — Rassvet and others do have potential, some already realized. There’s always a chance something will work. But it should now be obvious: Russia’s space sector must be a priority sanctions target, especially given capability gaps in many European countries.
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Not all facts and sources behind this text can be disclosed, but open-source information alone is sufficient to conclude that over 99% of Russia’s loud claims remain just that — loud claims. If you want to see some of those sources, follow our upcoming publications.